How to Guess on a Standardized Test

By James L., Test Prep Specialist

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Direct Answer

To guess well on a standardized test, first eliminate every choice you can defend, then make an inference from context, units, or wording, and only then commit to a letter. On the current SAT and ACT there is no penalty for wrong answers, so a narrowed guess always beats a blank. The old SAT deducted a quarter point for wrong answers through 2015, which made blind guessing neutral, but that rule is gone. Today, expected value favors answering every question you cannot solve, as long as you eliminate first.

At a Glance

The scoring rule changed everything

The reason guessing strategy shifted is a scoring change. College Board's own 2016 score guide states plainly that there is no penalty for guessing and the raw score equals the number of questions answered correctly. You can read the wording in the College Board's Understanding Scores document. The University of California summarized the same change for students: no more worrying about educated guesses, because you earn points only for what you answer correctly. Their 2016 explainer is a clear secondary source.

The ACT has long scored only correct answers, with no deduction for wrong ones. That means the expected value of a blind guess on a four choice question is simply one divided by four, or 25 percent of a point, with no subtraction for a miss. Answering always matches or beats leaving it blank.

Step 1: Eliminate before you guess

Elimination is the bridge between guessing and knowledge. A simple calculation shows that on a no penalty four choice question, eliminating one option raises your expected points from 0.25 to about 0.33, and eliminating two raises it to 0.50.

The expected value table

The lesson is simple: every option you remove is free expected value. This is why I teach elimination first, and a full drill on the method lives in how to eliminate wrong answers on multiple choice.

Step 2: Use inference cues

After elimination, use what the question gives you. On math, check the units: if the answer must be in feet per second, cross out choices in miles per hour. On reading, the tone of the passage often rules out an extreme choice. These are not magic, they are the same reasoning you would use if you had more time.

Units, extremes, and repetition

Three cues I trust: units must match the question; the most extreme choice is often, not always, a distractor; and a choice that repeats a word from the question stem is sometimes the safe pick on vocabulary in context items. None are laws, but each nudges probability upward.

Step 3: The Letter of the Day

When the proctor calls five minutes, stop optimizing. Pick one letter, say B, and fill every remaining blank with it. Studies of answer distributions on standardized exams show they are close to uniform across letters, so answering all blanks captures more expected points than leaving them empty. An analysis of guessing strategy notes that answering matters far more than which letter you choose.

Why a single letter beats random per question

If you pick a different random letter for each blank, you still average 25 percent, but a single fixed letter performs about the same in expectation and saves the mental energy you need for any question you can still solve. Use the Letter of the Day only for questions you will not reach. The time you save is better spent on questions where elimination is still possible, a point I return to in how to manage your time on a timed test.

Step 4: Know when not to guess

Guessing is for multiple choice with no penalty. It is not a plan for everything. On AP free response questions, random guessing earns nothing, but attempting partial work can earn points, so write the setup, the formula, or the direction even if you cannot finish.

Penalty based tests are different

Some classroom and professional exams still use a correction for guessing, deducting one divided by (options minus one) for a wrong answer. On those, a blind guess has zero expected value, and you should guess only after elimination. Always read the scoring rules before the test.

Step 5: Review the guesses afterward

A guess you got right teaches you nothing, and a guess you got wrong is a free diagnostic. After the test, mark every question you answered by elimination or Letter of the Day, then check which ones you missed. That habit turns guessing into data, and our guide on how to review your mistakes effectively explains how to build the loop.

Worked example across a section

Imagine a 20 question no penalty section where you confidently solve 12, eliminate down to two on 5, and have no clue on 3. Your expected points look like this:

• 12 solved: 12.00 points.
• 5 narrowed to two: about 0.50 each, so 2.50 points.
• 3 cold guesses at 0.25: 0.75 points.

Total expected: about 15.25. If you had left the 8 uncertain ones blank, you would expect 12.00. The guessing, done through elimination first, adds more than three points of expected value across one section. Scaled across a full exam, that is the difference between a middling score and a strong one, with no extra knowledge required, only the discipline to eliminate before you fill the bubble.

Common misconceptions

• "Guessing is cheating." It is a built in part of multiple choice design, and the tests are scored for it.
• "Never guess unless sure." On the SAT and ACT, never leaving a blank is the smarter math.
• "C is the most common answer." Distributions are near uniform, so no letter is meaningfully better.
• "Guessing can only help a little." Across 30 to 50 unanswered questions, the points add up to a real score difference.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a penalty for guessing on the SAT and ACT?

No. The digital SAT has no penalty for wrong answers, and the ACT has no penalty. College Board removed the old quarter point deduction in the 2016 redesign.

Is blind guessing ever better than leaving it blank?

On the current SAT and ACT, yes. With no deduction for a wrong answer, guessing and leaving blank both have expected value at or above zero, and answering gives you the point if you are right.

How does elimination change the expected value of a guess?

Each option you eliminate raises your probability. On a four choice no penalty question, eliminating one moves you from 25% to 33% expected points, and eliminating two moves you to 50%.

What is the Letter of the Day strategy?

When time is almost up, pick one answer letter and fill every remaining blank with it. Near uniform answer distributions make answering all blanks better than empty bubbles.

Should I guess on AP exams too?

Yes for multiple choice, since AP sections do not deduct for wrong answers. For free response parts, attempt partial credit instead of random guessing.

How do I know if my test penalizes guessing?

Read the scoring rules. Standardized admissions tests generally do not, but some classroom and certification exams still deduct a fraction for wrong answers.